К э. н., старший преподаватель Казахского Национального Университета имени аль-Фараби, Казахстан, г. Алматы



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P (unpaid) = S unpaid/ S, (1)
The probability of delay of payment is estimated similarly: a share of back payments (S delayed) in total of the conceded accounts in a money equivalent:
S (delayed) = S delayed/S, (2)
To carry out such appraisal expediently concerning each debtor. Than more share of back payments, subjects a high probability of that at the debtor can arise problems with repayment of the obligations. For calculation of probability of this event it is possible to determine by each client for a number of the periods specific weight of accounts on which there were refusals of payment from debtors for the specified reasons, and also growth rates of number of such accounts. If there is a tendency to growth of unpaid accounts or rates of their growth advance growth rates of total number of accounts, with this client it is necessary to recognize carrying out factoring operations inefficient. So, because of the supplier it is possible to define probability of non-payment as follows:

P (supplier)= N deviation/ N, (3)
where N - total number of deliveries,

N deviation – number of deliveries on which there were refusals of payment because of the supplier.

The probability of a non-return of the credit will develop of probability of bankruptcy (insolvency) of the debtor, probability of default by the supplier of contract provisions and probabilities of a default for the external reasons not depending on the parties:

P (not return)=P unpaid+ P supplier + n, (4)

It should be noted that the reason for non-repayment of debt the debtor may also be a fraud on his part, and from the supplier. To assess the likelihood of fraud is difficult to quantify, but qualitative assessment can be obtained by studying the firm's reputation and client companies debtors. Due to the fact that not all factoring companies and even banks have accumulated enough statistical base of clients and their customers to assess credit risk and liquidity risk is also proposed to use traditional methods for assessing the solvency of the debtor, such as rating and expert methods. The credit rating is made by evaluating the financial condition of the borrower (his solvency and financial stability) on the basis of financial statements (balance sheet, income statement). The main criteria of insolvency, which characterize the structure of the balance sheet are as follows: the coefficient current liquidity ratio of own funds, and the coefficient of restitution (loss) to pay. Based on the above system parameters can be estimated probability of insolvency of the company (Table 1).

1) Current ratio is calculated as follows:



Current ratio=current assets/short-term obligations, (5)

i.e. as relation of size of current assets to size of short-term obligations;

2) The factor of security is defined by own current assets as the relation of own current assets to the sum of current assets:

Factor of security with own current assets= Own current assets- Non-current assets/ current assets, (6)
3) If at least one of the above-stated factors matters, indicating on an inadmissible or high risk level, the factor of restoration (loss) of solvency pays off. It is defined as follows:
Factor of solvency= FCLB+Y/T(FCLB-FCLE)/2, (7)

where FCLE — value of factor of the current liquidity for the end of the reporting period, FCLB - value of factor of the current liquidity for the beginning of the reporting period, T — duration of the reporting period in months, Y — the period of restoration (loss) of solvency. At calculation of factor of restoration of solvency of Y = to 6 months. At calculation of factor of loss of solvency of Y = to 3 months. In the analysis of data of the annual reporting duration (T) is accepted to equal 12 months, for the first quarter — to 3 months etc.



Table 1. Assessment of solvency of the buyer

Indicator

Meaning

Quality assessment

Quantitative assessment

Factor of the current liquidity (1)

<1

Inadmissible risk

50-100%

From 1 to 1,5

High risk

10-50%

From 1,5 to 2

Moderate risk

5-10%

>2

Low risk

1-5%

Factor of security with own current assets (2)

<0,1

Inadmissible risk

50-100%

From 0,1 to 0,4

High risk

10-50%

From 0,4 to 0,7

Moderate risk

5-10%

>0,7

Low risk

1-5%

Factor of restoration (loss) of solvency (3)

<1

Inadmissible risk

50-100%

From 1 to 1,2

High risk

10-50%

From 1,2 to 1,5

Moderate risk

5-10%

>1,5

Low risk

1-5%


Thus, if value of one of the two first factors is lower standard, and the factor of restoration of solvency accepts value less than 1, the structure of balance of the enterprise can be recognized unsatisfactory, and the enterprise – insolvent.

In this case the cumulative indicator of credit risk will represent average these indicators. If to consider them as equivalent, level of credit risk will be their arithmetic-mean. For an assessment of credit risk and risk of liquidity it is possible to calculate also growth rates of non-payments (back payments) and to compare them to growth rates of payments as a whole (if the first above, the situation becomes complicated).

If all levels of separate risks expressed as a percentage (i.e. probabilities) are known, it is possible to calculate the general level of risks of the factoring transaction which will represent the following:

Pfact. = (Ps.t. + Pliq.) Pcurr. Pper. Pcurr. Ppolit. P legisl. Poperat.,

Let's try to analyses from the point of view of need of minimization of risks the main activities of the factoring company:

- Fond;


- Risk management:

- Internal business – processes;

- IT providing;

- Marketing;

- Sale and regional network;

- Personnel.

As the main components of competitiveness factoring the companies act as IT – providing, internal operational processes, system risk - management, cost of monetary resources.Cost of monetary resources is the main element of prime cost of factoring products. Finally it defines the price of a factoring product, so, and competitiveness of the factoring company to the sphere of sales. IT providing and internal operational processes form key competitive advantages on each factoring product at a stage of its creation, sale and service.

The system risk – management also is of great importance, as principles of a risk management define, what products the company can offer the clients.

Main ways of minimization of risks of the current activity of the factoring company it: Use of three-level model of a risk management; Creation of multilevel system of decision-making; Automation of processes; Flexible regulation of working conditions with the client; Application of scoring -rating model of an assessment of clients and debtors; Division of operational and strategic functions of client service.

Application of three-level system of a risk management provides control and the analysis of actions of the client at all stages of existence of a factoring product. At a stage of sales this function is carried out originally by the seller, then risk manager, and at a stage of service of the client – the manager on clients and risk manager.

The multilevel system of the decision-making, concerning interaction with the client and transaction parameters, allows to minimize risk of the wrong assessment. At an initial stage the analysis of the transaction is carried out by the seller, then risk – the manager, the final decision is accepted jointly with participation of the management of factoring division.

Automation provides a choice and control of the specialized factoring software for maximum quantity processing business – processes that will allow to reduce service terms to clients and will reduce probability of the mistakes resulting influence of a human factor. The specialized software allows to automate the majority of stages of the factoring transaction.

As shows world experiment, in providing the enterprises with fast and short working capital factoring just is engaged. In Kazakhstan, along with banks which not so willingly render factoring services as there are own bank products, already there were first specialized factoring companies. The subjects of MSB having stable debit payments, interested in urgent financing of the cash gaps became their clients.

However the factoring potential while is used not completely. There are two main problems disturbing to development of factoring in Kazakhstan. The first consists in weak awareness of business on the factoring possibilities, the second as it was noted, - in absence of state support. Both problems are interconnected.

That business, especially in regions, knew about factoring more, it is necessary to open regional representations, to carry out explanatory work. All this demands additional resources which developing subjects of factoring simply don't have. As participants of a meeting, by big incentive for development of factoring both in Russia specified, and in Kazakhstan absence of regulation is from a financial regulator. Because the factoring companies, unlike banks, shouldn't carry out standards for sufficiency of the capital, they have good possibilities to finance current assets, demand on which from real sector the very big. Benefit of factoring at the correct use is obvious to MSB - the company spends the received means on purchase the new goods or raw materials at the expense of what can increase considerably sales volumes of finished goods, thus his buyers will receive a desirable delay of payment. At the same time, at interest of the client, the factoring company can take up risks of a non-payment of delivery from the debtor, i.e. actually insure the client from financial losses. The bank credit of such possibility of MSB won't give.

As a whole, development of factoring will promote in many respects to decrease in dependence of MSB from bank crediting. And also to competition strengthening in financial sector that will favorably affect quality of its development.

***


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